Predicting the 2011 NFL Playoffs...As My Mom Would

Considering how wide open the NFL has been this season, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to predicting the 2011 playoffs. So rather than rehash the participants’ stats, personnel, and recent history, I figured I would get a real objective look at how this tournament is going to shake down. Whenever I’ve hit a slump in picking sports games (just for fun of course), there’s really only one person who I can look to for an unbiased perspective on sporting outcomes. It’s someone who cuts right through all the experts’ jargon and Vegas’ betting line with resolute decision making criteria. That person is my Mom. Say hi to my Mom:

Does my Mom actually care what’s happening in the NFL? Not in the slightest. She just knows my Dad and I care and that it keeps us out of trouble on Sundays when I’m visiting. Most of her sports knowledge comes through osmosis I suppose, since she’s always preferred mascots over players. She’s always been steadfast in her picks though- unwavering and decisive. Considering the parity in NFL these days, I’m rolling with those instincts.

I wanted this to be somewhat scientific though, so I had to get down to the roots of her forecasting prowess. When I asked her to help me with this project, besides just asking “Why?” she proceeded to tell me her three main factors in calling games. The secret boils down to this: 1) Tenacity of team name/mascot; 2) Location of the game (with special attention paid to indoor vs. outdoor stadiums); and 3) Uniforms and team colors. Sit on that ESPN.

So, I created a scoring system for her. Moms would simply rate each team in every game on a 1 to 5 scale (5 being the highest or in case of location, the biggest advantage) for each of the 3 measuring standards. I gave her some pictures of each teams’ unis and laid out where the games would be played. Highest point total moved on. I didn’t bother explaining how the NFL reseeds teams after each round, since rankings based on prior performance are absolutely pointless in this model. Let’s get to the results.

Wild Card Round

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Jets: 6 points (2 pts team name, 2 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Colts: 13 points (5 pts team name, 5 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Rex Ryan and his squad get the boot, much to his excitement (too easy). Mom put a ton of stock in home field advantage for Indy, commenting that it might be “too stuffy” in a dome for the Jets who are used to colder weather.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Ravens: 11 points (5 pts team name, 1 pt location, 5 pts uniforms)

Chiefs: 9 points (1 pt team name, 5 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

It came down to the uniforms on this one, with team name and location advantages nullified. Good thing for the Ravens, Mom digs purple and thinks the Chiefs helmets are boring.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Saints: 10 points (5 pts team name, 2 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Seahawks: 9 points (3 pts team name, 4 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Losing record? Not the problem. The Seahawks would be better off in Mom’s book if they had a tougher team name and got rid of that “weird green trim.”

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Packers: 10 points (2 pts team name, 3 pts location, 5 pts uniforms)

Eagles: 9 points (4 pts team name, 3 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Here’s where some family influence may infiltrate Mom’s infallible reasoning. Both my Dad and I are Packers fans, which may account for her high marks for the Green & Gold. Philly’s home field advantage is completely neutralized since the Pack are also used to cold weather.

Divisional Playoffs

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Colts: 7 points (2 pts team name, 3 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Steelers: 10 points (2 pts team name, 3 pts location, 5 pts uniforms)

Bye weeks prove more beneficial than we thought! While the Steelers get full marks for their bold color scheme, Indy actually gets docked a point in the uniform category from Round 1 to Round 2.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Ravens: 11 points (4 pts team name, 3 pts location, 4 pts uniforms)

Patriots: 7 points (1 pt team name, 3 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

The soon-to-be league MVP means jack when Mom thinks your team name is weak. Hopefully I didn’t slant her opinion by providing her pictures of New England’s throwbacks and “Pat the Patriot” helmets. Oops.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Saints: 6 points (2 pts team name, 2 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Bears: 13 points (5 pts team name, 5 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Is this where I tell you that my Mom loves bears? It’s her favorite animal. Like, they’re all over her house favorite. So, it was no surprise to me that the Saints didn’t stand a chance here. Mom scores major points with me by saying the only reason the Bears didn’t get a 5 on uniforms is because they’re “too close to the dumb San Francisco Giants”.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Packers: 10 points (2 pts team name, 3 pts location, 5 pts uniforms)

Falcons: 8 pts (3 pts team name, 3 pts location, 2 pts uniforms)

Apparently Mom isn't buying the Falcons as a #1 seed either. Despite lingering concerns that the Lambeau hardened Pack may be deterred by the “stuffiness” of the Georgia Dome, it’s the old school unis that put them through to face their arch rivals in the NFC Championship.

Conference Championships

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens: 7 points (3 pts team name, 1 pt location, 3 pts uniforms)

Steelers: 10 points (2 pts team name, 5 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Perhaps growing immune to the Ravens as a menacing team name with cool colors, Mom gives Baltimore their lowest score of the postseason. More importantly, she gives a huge nod to the Steelers’ home field advantage even though “Heinz Field? Like the ketchup, Heinz?” was her first question.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Packers: 8 points (1 pt team name, 2 pts location, 5 pts uniforms)

Bears: 13 points (5 pts team name, 5 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Is this where I tell you that my Mom spends a fair amount of time in Chi-town on business? Citing impressive knowledge, she noted the city was “having a comeback sports year…you know, because they won the Stanley Cup.” Sorry Packers, at least you’ve got sweet uniforms.

Super Bowl XLV

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears (at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, TX)

Steelers: 6 points (1 pt team name, 2 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

Bears: 10 points (5 pts team name, 2 pts location, 3 pts uniforms)

At this point, you shouldn’t be surprised that Moms picks the Bears to win the Super Bowl. You just need to get to Vegas and put it all on Jay Cutler’s right arm. When they look at you all crazy like, feel free to recite this fail-safe methodology and laugh all the way to the bank.

In all seriousness, a special thanks to my Mom, Peggy Carter. She was way too gracious and played along despite her busy schedule. It was actually quite fun to talk to her about all of this, and if you need some bonding time with your mother, I suggest getting her take on the NFL Playoffs.